Real Estate Marketing Is Not What It Used To Be Real Estate Lease Option Strategy
Feb 04
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: That went well

Image by qthrul via Flickr

There have been many predicts surrounding the housing market. Some say the worst is over and we are recovering now. Others say the worst is yet to come.  The truth is it all depends on how involved the Fed wants to be. Take a look at this article and you will see what I mean.

Is Residential Real Estate a Ticking Time Bomb?

I know we all believe the housing bubble has already popped and all things real estate are over. One might think this post should be from 2006 from the title. But it’s not, this post is from 2010 and below are the reasons for the question.

First is the latest SIGTARP report saying the Government has become the mortgage market with U.S. taxpayers shouldering the risk. From the SIGTARP report we have a 100% government mortgage market at this point.

SIGTARP reports 100% of Ginnie Mae MBS are backed by FHA/VA/USDA, 100%. The current financial support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is $1.4 trillion dollars. Look at the actual risk exposure of the above table of government backed GSEs, their MBS exposure, their funds and relationships. There is not enough taxpayers or bail outs in the world if those MBSes implode. I have to wonder if every single person in the U.S. was just given a home for free, if it would not be cheaper. Seriously.

Fannie and Freddie now have an unlimited bailout and it is estimated they have lost $400 billion dollars. The plan is to purchase $1.25 trillion mortgage backed securities from these two GSEs until the end of March.

The number of homeowners who are strategically walking away from their mortgages is up to 10% this year. We also have the percentage of home ownership to the general population back to slightly below the year 2000 levels. Recall the overall population is increasing about 2.3 million each year.

Note we might have $448 billion in GSE losses, $48 billion more than estimated just last month.

New Home Sales for December 2009 were 7.6% below November. Bear in mind there is an $8000 tax credit for first time home buyers plus a $6500 dollar tax credit for existing home buyers. These expire at the end of April 2010. The first tax credit expired at the end of November 2009. We also have actual rates low with no end in sight at least in signaling of the Fed rate.

Foreclosures for next year estimates vary, but seem to solidify at 3 million. 2009 foreclosures were estimated at 2.8 million.    –more

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